Fed researchers find shared tariff pressures in Canada and Mexico

Federal Reserve researchers compared goods shipments to the United States in the year through April 2026 with calendar year 2024. Canada and Mexico moved in opposite directions overall, even though Mexico faced greater average tariff exposure in the comparison.

The authors found a similar pattern beneath the country totals. In their baseline estimate, a sector with 10 percentage points more tariff exposure recorded roughly 7.4% weaker exports relative to a less-exposed sector, compared with their relationship before the tariff increases.